Grassroots - Take Back Your Country!

By: Dick Morris & Eileen McGann Article Font Size

This is not a good year to be a Republican. A combination of the Iraq war, gas prices, the credit crisis, and a looming recession are dragging down the Republican Party, big time.

While Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., hangs in there, locked in a tough race with Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., the Republican undercard is facing obliteration in the 2008 general elections for the Senate.

Polling suggests that a massacre may be in the offing — and one that’s possibly even greater than the worst of previous GOP years: 1958, 1964, 1974, 1986, and 2006.

Scott Rasmussen, whose site, http://www.rasmussenreports.com, follows these races closely, is producing truly hair-raising polling data.

Of the open Republican Senate seats in contention, Democratic victory seems very likely in Virginia (Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner now has 55 percent, while fellow former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore stands at 37) and New Mexico (where Democratic Rep. Tom Udall takes 53 percent to GOP Rep. Steve Pearce’s 37 percent and 57 percent to Republican Rep. Heather Wilson’s 36). In Colorado, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall has a narrow lead over Republican Bob Schaffer (45-42).

Nebraska would seem safely Republican, but a humongous black turnout in Mississippi could elect former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, just as it led to a Democratic congressional victory in a bi-election this month.

Score them: two Democrat, one leaning Democrat, one leaning Republican, and one Republican. A net loss of two or three seats.

And then there are the endangered incumbents. Three GOP senators are actually behind their Democratic challengers. Alaska’s Ted Stevens is behind Mark Begich by 47-45. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan in North Carolina by 48-47. And Jeanne Shaheen is well ahead of John Sununu in New Hampshire, 51-43. Stevens’ legal problems and the likely huge black turnout in North Carolina make all three states lean Democratic at this point.

Even when GOP incumbents lead, they are perilously under 50 percent. In Oregon, as of this writing, Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by only 45-42 and Steve Novick by 47-41. And in Texas, John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by only 47-43. In addition, Norm Coleman in Minnesota is hanging on by his teeth against Al Franken, 50-43; Susan Collins is only narrowly ahead of Rep. Tom Allen in Maine, 52-42; and in Kansas, Pat Roberts holds only a 52-40 lead over Jim Slattery. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky may also be in trouble.

So, among incumbents, score it three leaning Democratic, two tossups, and three leaning Republican.

Overall, that’s a likely Democratic pickup of five seats, with an eight-seat gain possible, and, in a partisan wipeout, a 12-seat shift.

Mon dieu!

In all likelihood, the filibuster will still remain a theoretical Republican option, but, in practical terms, may be beyond reach, especially if Obama wins the White House.

Driving the GOP’s imperiled Senate situation, or course, is a massive shift in party identification. While the two parties are normally about tied in party ID, the Democrats now enjoy a 44-30 advantage in the latest Fox News poll of April 29.

President Bush’s 28 percent approval rating isn’t helping either. Bush needs to go out and tell America that things are bad, but not that bad. There are solid signs that the economy may not be tanking after all.

Unemployment, while rising, is still at historic lows. The credit crisis has not led to a wholesale collapse of the financial industry and the instability appears to be easing. And, in Iraq, we are approaching a more stable situation with lower combat deaths. Bush, who has largely been hunkered down in the White House, needs to hit the trail and move his ratings up into the mid- or high 30s, not an insurmountable challenge.

Will the endangered Republicans recover?

Most have prevailed in the past by lifting their personal ratings out of possible danger early in the race. But when long-term incumbents find themselves mired in the high 40s or low 50s in vote share, it indicates a massive voter desire for change that is not likely to abate.

In the House, the incredible three Democratic bi-election victories, combined with the retirements of so many Republican incumbents, indicates that the GOP may be facing disaster there as well.

© 2008 Dick Morris & Eileen McGann

If the Republican Party keeps going like it is they will never recover. I have been a Republican for 40 years and voted for one Democrat in my life time. (Disaster) When the Republicans had the opportunity to really accomplish something for this Nation, they utterly failed. A lot of us won’t get over that. All 3 branches of government, and they did nothing that they had promised.

We still have a ridiculous tax system to reform, Capital Gains tax that is driving our corporations over seas, the death tax, and probably the highest tax rate we have ever seen coming in our near future. We still don’t have line item veto, and we still have lobbyists that buy our elected officials and the offices they hold. We still have Pork. We still do not have secure borders.

We have had inept leadership for the past 8 years. Lott? Hastert? I support the war and I know that we have to. Muslims want us as dead as they do the Jews. We have bureaucracies like Medicare, EPA, Homeland Security, Halliburton and their numerous companies that are just plain thieves and no one has the guts to tackle the waste and corruption. They ought to start with the Pentagon. The next big bureaucracy will be the one for Global Warming.   They are all protecting their power. Preparing for the next election.

If someone doesn’t step up to the plate and fight for us as a nation, we are a doomed nation. We have no cohesive energy plan. India and China are Hungry. The oil barons can bring us to our knees in two weeks if they decide to. We are skating on thin ice. We are going to have higher prices on everything, even toothpaste. We are going to have rationing of food products, no bees to pollinate our crops and no one that wants to work the fields. We used to be the bread basket of the World. Now the basket looks almost empty. Somebody needs to make a plan. We have just a few years and it will be to late. Our super power status can crumble like Rome. We may have automobiles sitting by the road with no gas and none on the horizon, because everyone just talks about it and does nothing. What should you do with that last gallon of gasoline? Is anybody concerned. We need a plan.

I have read the Newt Gingrich book “Real Change) and it ought to be required reading for every Office Holder and person in this Nation. Somebody has to tell the truth and someone needs to look at the solutions that just might work. Some one needs to make a plan.

I think Oklahoma on the whole has good people in the Senate and House. I will probably support our local Republicans that are running for office. They may not please everyone all the time, but I think they try. Republicans as a party?  How do we take back our Country?

Congress has turned our Constitution into shambles. The Supreme Court is now making laws instead of interpreting them. We need a plan.